导致全球通货膨胀主要的五大因素

转自 经济形势报告网 / 2021-08-15 16:11:40

导致全球通货膨胀主要的五大因素

今年以来,全球通货膨胀膨胀水平持续上升。以美国为例,前五个月份CPI同比涨幅依次为1.4%、1.7%、2.6%、4.2%和5%,逐月升高。欧元区也表现出与美国一致的走势,5月份调和CPI同比涨幅上升到2%,这已经是欧洲央行能够忍受的上限。从新兴和发展中经济体来看,趋势则更为明显,以俄罗斯、印度和巴西为例,5月份CPI同比涨幅分别为6%、6.3%和8.1%,均创近年最高水平。鉴于此,我们需要分析一下当前全球通货膨胀成因及其可能的影响。

其实,当前全球通货膨胀成因并不复杂,主要原因如下。

一是货币因素。为应对突如其来的疫情,以美国为代表的央行加大了量化宽松货币政策的力度,由此导致货币供给推动的物价上涨。以资产价格未为例,货币供给增加必然导致资产价格上涨。众所周知,以美国为代表的股市不断上涨,财富效应的增加必然导致需求拉动的物价上涨。同时,量宽政策也加剧了房地产价格的上涨。以美国为例,美国全国房地产经纪人协会的数据显示,4月份美国现房价格中值较上年同期飙升19%,至创纪录的341600美元。需要指出的是,2020年美国和欧洲房地产价格并未因疫情下降,全年价格涨幅都在4.5%以上。

二是经济刺激政策扩大了全球总需求,最终将形成需求推动的通货膨胀。从美国的情况来看,拜登政府在推出天量的1.9万亿美元刺激计划之后,紧锣密鼓筹划推出2.25万亿美元的“基建”投资计划,这必将推动全球通货膨胀。

三是基建投资必然拉动大宗商品价格的上涨,从现实情况来看也的确如此。虽然大宗商品价格的上涨直接影响PPI,但最终会传导至CPI,从而形成一般意义上的通货膨胀。同时,疫情及天气原因导致巴西等国采矿业开工不足,从而加剧了大宗商品的供需不平衡,加快了大宗商品的上涨。

四是疫情好转之后各国重启经济,由此导致总需求在快速增长,但全球供应链尚未复苏,由此导致全球物价上涨。

五是经济刺激政策提高了通货膨胀预期,通货膨胀预期存在自我形成机制,一旦预期形成将会自我实现。从现实情况来看,全球资本与金融市场对通货膨胀的预期已经初步形成。美国通货膨胀预期直接助推了美国10年期国债收益率飙升,这让全球金融市场十分紧张。美国10年期国债收益率飙升。必然会助推全球市场自发的融资利率水平的提高。

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Based on the information gathered, Inland Revenue Board of Malaysia (IRBM) would like to alert the public to be more cautious of the modus operandi used by tax scammers as listed in their media statement by which could be accessed from the web link below:

https://www.hasil.gov.my/en/beware-of-tax-scams/

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Sales tax exemption on pallets

©CCH Malaysia GST and SST Tracker – 12 April 2022

The Royal Malaysian Customs Department (RMCD) has recently issued sales tax policy no 1/2022 on 5 April 2022 on the conditions to qualify for sales tax exemption on pallets.

The policy is currently only available in the Malay language version. The policy clarifies the following:

  • • Registered manufacturers or agents appointed by a registered manufacturer for import or purchase of pallets used as material packaging in manufacturing are eligible for exemption of sales tax under item 1 or Item 3, Schedule C, Sales Tax Order (Persons Exempted From Tax Payment) 2018.
  • • Pallets imported or purchased with sales tax exemption under item 1 or 3, Schedule C of the Sales Tax Order (Persons Exempted From Tax Payment) 2018 should be:
    • – used as a material packaging of finished goods exported
    • – sold and not returned to the registered manufacturer
    • – should not be the property of the buyer.
  • • Pallets used for the purpose of:
    • – transporting goods
    • – reusable or reinstated to the registered manufacturer are not categorised as packaging material and not eligible for sales tax exemption under item 1 or 3, Schedule C of the Sales Tax Order (Persons Exempted From Tax Payment) 2018. Sales tax should be paid when the pallets are imported or purchased.
  • • Pallets used for the purpose of transporting exported goods and then re-imported are eligible for sales tax exemption under item 39, Schedule A, Sales Tax Order (Person Who Exempted From Tax Payment) 2018 during the pallet re-imported.

Source: ©CCH Asia Pacific, Dasar Cukai Jualan Bil. 1/2022, Royal Malaysian Customs Department Website,5 April 2022, accessed 12 April 2022.

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Rakyat Malaysia may check their Tax Reference No. Tax Status, and Malaysian Income Tax (TIN) No. by visiting

https://mytax.hasil.gov.my/

马来西亚国民可通过浏览以下网址以搜查所得税编号,税务详情和纳税人识别号码(TIN):

https://mytax.hasil.gov.my/

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